How to determine assignment risk for cash-secured puts using Monte Carlo simulations

How to determine assignment risk for cash-secured puts using Monte Carlo simulations

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Strike

Strike Price is a mobile and web app that calculates the probability your covered calls or cash-secured puts expire worthless. By blending weighted historical returns, GARCH volatility, intraday noise, and live implied volatility, it runs Monte Carlo simulations to deliver a single assignment-risk score. Track positions across brokers, set smart alerts, and optimize strike combinations to meet custom income targets—trade options with data-driven confidence. Join the community to share insights.!

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What to expect from an ideal product

  1. Strike Price runs Monte Carlo simulations that blend historical data with live market volatility to calculate the exact probability your cash-secured puts will get assigned before expiration
  2. The app combines multiple data sources including weighted historical returns, GARCH volatility models, and real-time implied volatility to give you a single, easy-to-understand assignment risk score
  3. You can test different strike prices and expiration dates to see how assignment risk changes, helping you pick the sweet spot between premium income and risk exposure
  4. Smart alerts notify you when assignment risk crosses your comfort zone, so you can close positions or roll them before getting stuck with unwanted shares
  5. The position tracking feature lets you monitor assignment risk across all your cash-secured puts from different brokers in one place, making it easier to manage your overall portfolio risk

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