How to calculate the probability that your covered calls will expire worthless

How to calculate the probability that your covered calls will expire worthless

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Strike

Strike Price is a mobile and web app that calculates the probability your covered calls or cash-secured puts expire worthless. By blending weighted historical returns, GARCH volatility, intraday noise, and live implied volatility, it runs Monte Carlo simulations to deliver a single assignment-risk score. Track positions across brokers, set smart alerts, and optimize strike combinations to meet custom income targets—trade options with data-driven confidence. Join the community to share insights.!

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What to expect from an ideal product

  1. Uses real market data and volatility models to run thousands of simulations showing how often your covered calls will finish out-of-the-money
  2. Combines past stock performance with current option pricing to give you one clear percentage chance of keeping your premium
  3. Tracks multiple positions from different brokers so you can see assignment risk across your entire covered call portfolio
  4. Sends alerts when market conditions change enough to significantly affect your calls' chances of expiring worthless
  5. Lets you test different strike prices before placing trades to find the sweet spot between premium income and assignment probability

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